Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics with Elias Papaioannou (September 2010) Web Appendix
May 21 April 2009 Royal Economics Society conference presentation of International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa.
At the 2009 RES conference I also discussed Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow‘s “What have we learned about Growth?”. My comment focused on the contribution of schooling to development accounting. I argued that the development accounting framework is not well suited for the scenario where different schooling levels are imperfect substitutes (which seems the relevant […]
At the 2009 RES conference I also discussed Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow‘s “What have we learned about Growth?”. My comment focused on the contribution of schooling to development accounting. I argued that the development accounting framework is not well suited for the scenario where different schooling levels are imperfect substitutes (which seems the […]
December 2010 To determine the effect of economic shocks on civil conflict, the empirical approach must be tailored to the shocks’ persistence. I illustrate this point by revisiting Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004). MSS argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase the probability of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa over the 1979-1999 […]
With Markus Brückner. November 2008 Recessions due to low rainfall triggered democratic change in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is consistent with the economic (window-of-opportunity) theory of political transitions. Our analysis quantifies democratic change by improvements in democracy scores as well as transitions from autocracy to democracy (an earlier (February 2008) version of the paper focused on […]
With Markus Brückner. October 2009 Supplementary Appendix October 2009
Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict (May 2009)
With Markus Brückner. August 2009 The Economic Journal, May 2010. (This paper replaces Growth, Democracy, and Civil War.)
Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict (November 2008) Supplementary figures Presentation at “Conflicts, Globalization, and Development” CEPR/PSE Workshop Paris, 13-14 November 2008 (the program of the workshop is available here). The presentation also drew on the work Markus BrÃ¼ckner and I are doing on commodity prices, growth, and civil war. July 2008 version
June 2008 Supplementary Appendix Slides 16 July NBER Macro and Productivity meeting
June 2008 Incorporates comments of colleagues on the first version of the paper.
February 2008 My related article published on voxeu.
Slides (in pdf) of a at the LSE CEP/Economics Department Macro conference on February 8, 2008; maybe this additional brief explanation helps making clear what I am trying to get at
November 2007 Web Appendix We have been working on integrating some more data and using alternative measures of democracy. A less technical summary article written for voxeu. A perspective from the February 2008 CEPR bulletin.
October 2007 Web Appendix Data and Programs (zip file)
August 2007. Published version in: The Review of Economics and Statistics February 2009. Supplementary Appendix All Tables in Excel
March 2007. Prepared for: New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics.
November 2006 Supplementary Appendix
November 2006. Published version in: The Journal of European Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings, April-May 2007 Â Supplementary Appendix Presentation Slides (EEA Annual Meetings, Vienna, August 2006)
November 2006. Prepared for New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics.
November 2005. For a revised version, see above.
December 2003 version Why this paper was not revised and sent to journals.
October 2003. Published version in: The American Economic Review, June 2004
November 2003. Published version in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2004 Supplementary Materials: Stock-Yogo weak-instrument test statistics EVIEWS output, Table V First-stage regression results for real openness in former colonies sample The programs used
December 2001 (CEPR Discussion Paper)
My presentation (ppt, pdf) at the EDR conference May 7-8 in Barcelona. It is about whether negative rainfall shocks and international commodity price shocks started civil conflicts/wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. The main empirical result is that they did. I show that establishing this result involves understanding and correctly modelling the difference between transitory shocks (like rainfall […]