Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that Sub-Saharan African civil conflicts 1981-1999 started following negative rainfall shocks. In Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict (May 2009) I use the same data and controls but conclude the opposite: conflicts started after positive rainfall shocks. Our conclusions disagree because I treat rainfall levels as mean reverting; MSS identify the effect of rainfall shocks on conflict outbreak assuming rainfall levels follow a random walk. The opposing conclusions highlight the importance of correctly capturing the persistence of economic shocks, an issue the conflict literature has not dealt with so far.

December 2009 update: Burke, Miguel, Satyanath, Dykema, and Lobell’s Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences follows my transitory shocks paper in treating rainfall (and temperature) levels as mean reverting, see their Table 1 and Methods Section.